El Nino phenomenon makes 2023 the hottest year. According to CNN, ocean temperatures have reached record levels in the past four years, scientists reported in January. By mid-March, climatologists once again warned that global sea surface temperatures had risen to a new level.
This phenomenon has experts worried about the future, especially as the gradual emergence of El Nino forecasts is on the way to starting this summer. It causes negative effects such as extreme heat, tropical cyclones and a significant threat to coral reefs.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a major weather phenomenon affecting the global scale. It is described as a periodic climate change lasting from 2 to 7 years. Tropical sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean increased dramatically and lasted longer than the long-term average.
Temperature increase in some regions in the central and eastern Pacific during El Nno 2015-2016.
El Nino causes a few different phenomena around the world. In the central Western Hemisphere, it causes dry, hot, and more uncomfortable weather than usual. In addition, it also causes heavy rains and floods in some parts of the world, while other areas become dry and forest fires.
This phenomenon affects the lives of millions of people, especially residents living in the coastal areas of the Pacific Ocean. It can cause natural disasters such as major floods, famines, water shortages and health.
The El Nino phenomenon is explained by the increase in sea surface temperature in the central Pacific Ocean. The amount of greenhouse gases in the world is increasing. Higher temperatures will lead to fluctuations in heat flows in the global atmospheric and climate systems, causing significant changes in the natural environment.
El Nino Impact
The 20th century recorded two worst El Nino, in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. The last “super” El Nino in 2015-2016 set new records for some central Pacific regions. Ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are more than 2 degrees Celsius above average. This has caused severe droughts, floods and wildfires in various parts of the world.
In South America, El Nino causes heavy rains and floods, especially in the northern regions of Peru and Ecuador. Landslides and natural disasters cause significant damage to infrastructure and agriculture. In addition, El Nino leads to a decline in fish production, affecting the livelihoods of local fishermen.
In Southeast Asia, El Nino causes prolonged drought and heat. It causes food shortages, seriously affecting people’s lives.
In Africa, El Nino delayed the rainy season, leading to crop failures and food shortages in countries like Ethiopia and Zimbabwe. This caused many people to relocate.
The 2015-2016 El Nino event should be viewed in the context of global climate change. 2016 was the hottest year on record (so far) due to a combination of global climate change and El Nino. El Nino directly increased the global temperature in 2016 by 0.12 degrees Celsius.
Unforeseen consequences
Global temperatures in recent years have increased by an average of more than 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times (1880). Countries joined the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to commit to limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees – and preferably 1.5 degrees – above pre-industrial temperatures. Scientists consider 1.5 degree warming as an important tipping point. Beyond that, the likelihood of severe floods, droughts, wildfires and food shortages could increase significantly.
“We are likely to have the hottest year on record globally in 2024,” said Josef Ludescher, a senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The hottest year on record is currently 2016, after a very strong El Nino.
Even though we’ve had 3 years of being cooled by La Nina, the temperatures are still skyrocketing to dangerous levels.
Europe experienced its hottest summer in 2022 with temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius. Pakistan and India experienced a severe heat wave, many areas reaching more than 49 degrees Celsius.
“El Nino is usually associated with record-breaking temperatures at the global level. It’s not yet known if this will happen in 2023 or 2024, but in my opinion, it’s more likely than not.” , said Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus agency.
Drought, heat and fire
El Nino can amplify droughts, intense heat waves, and wildfires.
South Africa and India are at risk of severe drought and heat, as are countries near the Western Pacific including Indonesia, Australia, and Pacific island nations such as Vanuatu and Fiji.
For Australia – still reeling from widespread flooding – El Nino is likely to bring much drier, hotter weather, particularly in eastern parts of the country. Since 1900, 18 of the 27 El Niño years have been accompanied by widespread winter and spring drought, a spokesman for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said.
Recent flooding in Australia has also raised fears of a particularly destructive bushfire season. Increased vegetation growth can provide fuel for fires as the weather becomes drier and hotter.
India is also bracing for the effects of El Niño, which could weaken the monsoon that brings the rainfall the country relies on to fill aquifers and grow crops.
